Will COVID-19 be Seasonal Like The Flu?

Many experts predict COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) will evolve into a seasonal virus like Influenza (the flu), with peaks during the winter. While it seems likely that COVID-19 will become seasonal, how certain and when this will happen remains unknown.   

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What Seasonal COVID-19 Would Look Like

As of right now, COVID-19 is not seasonal. Covid cases soared during the summer of 2021 compared to typical respiratory viruses that typically peak in the winter. The next six months to a year will tell what living with COVID-19 will look like in the long term. COVID-19 will likely be endemic, meaning always present at some level. Many believe it will exist in society similarly to Influenza.

If COVID-19 is not eradicated, we can expect covid protocols to be more stringent during the winter months. People will need to increase mask use and social distancing measures to reduce the spread of the virus and other respiratory illnesses. 

When COVID-19 Will Look Like the Flu

Once COVID-19 evolves to be more like the flu–manageable, predictable, steady, and possibly seasonal–the illness will transition from a pandemic phase into an endemic one. This would mean that COVID-19 will no longer be widespread with rapidly increasing infections, and hospitals will be able to manage the caseload.

COVID-19 will become endemic once most people are vaccinated or have immunity from prior infection resulting in herd immunity (when a large part of the population is immune to a disease, thus reducing the spread). Some estimates say 70 to 90 percent of the global population will need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

The mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.006 - 0.09 percent. The current mortality rate for COVID-19 is still much higher than the flu and is constantly changing. A recent study estimates the omicron variant is at least 40 percent more fatal than the seasonal flu. However, its milder symptoms compared to previous strains of COVID-19 have public health officials hopeful the strain will become less severe as it continues to mutate.